Coffee prices 2026: why has coffee increased again? Complete analysis and forecasts
Since 2021, coffee prices have risen sharply. But in early 2026, many consumers find that prices remain high, or even continue to rise.
Why is coffee more expensive in 2026? Is the price surge over? Should we expect prices to fall soon?
Here is an updated and detailed analysis.
1. Global coffee prices remain historically high in 2026
Coffee is traded on international markets:
Arabica → Intercontinental Exchange (New York)
Robusta → London ICE Futures Europe
Recent price trends
Between 2020 and 2024:
Arabica: from $1.10/lb to over $2.40/lb
Robusta: from $1,300/tonne to over $4,300/tonne
In 2025, prices fluctuated slightly but remained at historically high levels compared to pre-2020.
Even in the event of a technical correction, the “new floor” is higher than it was before the climate and logistics crisis.
2. Climate change continues to disrupt global production
The main structural reason for the rise in coffee prices remains climate change.
2.1 Brazil: unstable cycles
Brazil accounts for around 35% of global production.
Recent issues:
prolonged droughts
frost events
more pronounced alternating “off” and “on” years
Coffee trees, weakened by the 2021–2022 events, are still producing irregularly.
2.2 Vietnam: Robusta supply strain
Vietnam, the world’s leading Robusta producer, has experienced:
El Niño-related droughts
rising irrigation costs
falling exportable stocks
Yet Robusta is increasingly used in:
industrial blends
capsules
certain instant coffees
With strong demand, prices remain high.
3. Inflation and rising production costs
Even if raw prices stabilize, costs remain high.
3.1 Agricultural inputs
Fertilizers that are still more expensive than before 2020
Energy costs above the historical average
Unstable fuel prices
3.2 Labor
In several producing countries:
rising minimum wages
agricultural labor shortages
social pressure for better pay
Producers can no longer sell at old prices without losing profitability.
4. Global demand continues to grow
Unlike other commodities, global demand for coffee is not slowing down.
Major trends:
Rapid growth in China
Explosion of coffee shops in Southeast Asia
Growth of specialty coffee in Europe
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global consumption is growing by around 2–3% per year.
More demand + unstable production = sustained pressure on prices.
5. Logistics and geopolitics: a factor still underestimated
Since 2023, shipping routes have been regularly disrupted.
Tensions in the Red Sea
Increased marine insurance premiums
Longer delivery times
Even though the 2022 logistics peak has passed, costs remain higher than before the pandemic.
6. Why specialty coffees sometimes increase in price faster
Specialty coffees are particularly sensitive to climate variations.
A coffee rated 84 or 86 SCA points:
often comes from a micro-region
depends on a single harvest
does not have large-scale industrial production
If the harvest is poor, the price can increase by 20–40% from one year to the next.
This is not artificial inflation, but an agricultural reality.
7. Coffee prices in 2026: should we expect a fall?
Scenario 1: Stabilization
If the 2026 Brazilian harvests are good and logistics tensions ease, stabilization is possible.
Scenario 2: Remaining at a high level
The most likely outcome:
Less volatile prices
But sustainably higher than pre-2020 levels
Climate change makes production more uncertain, preventing a return to old low prices.
8. Why prices at an artisanal roaster change
At an independent roaster:
Coffees are purchased in microlots
The prices paid to producers are often higher than fair trade
Roasting is done locally
When the price of green coffee rises, the impact is direct.
Drastically cutting prices would mean:
lowering quality
changing origin
squeezing producers' pay
This is not a viable long-term choice.
Conclusion: why coffee remains more expensive in 2026
The rise in coffee prices is due to a combination of factors:
✔ climate instability
✔ persistent inflation
✔ rising agricultural costs
✔ sustained global demand
✔ logistics tensions
✔ pressure on quality coffees
This is not a one-off increase, but a structural change in the market. Coffee in 2026 is more expensive than in 2019, and it is likely to remain so.
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