Chocolate and climate change: Why are cocoa yields at risk?

Updated on October 24, 2025

1. Cocoa, a crop threatened by global warming

Cocoa, an essential ingredient in our favorite chocolate bars and confectionery, is currently at the heart of a silent but profound crisis. Due to global warming, already fragile cocoa plantations are facing unprecedented pressure.

Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and irregular rainfall: these climate disruptions directly threaten cocoa yields and quality, particularly in West Africa, which provides more than 60% of global production.

According to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), the 2023/24 season saw a decline of nearly 13% in global production, reaching its lowest level in over twenty years. At the same time, prices reached historic highs: over $10,000 per ton in April 2025, unprecedented in the modern history of cocoa.

Behind these figures lies an alarming reality: chocolate as we know it is in danger.

2. The effects of climate change on cocoa production

2.1 Extreme temperatures and heat stress

The cocoa tree (Theobroma cacao) is a sensitive plant that thrives in areas where the average temperature is between 21 and 28°C. Above 30°C, its growth slows, flowering decreases, and beans develop poorly.

However, between 2015 and 2024, the main producing areas (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria) recorded 40 to 50 additional days per year when temperatures exceeded this critical threshold.

This excessive heat dries out the soil, increases water stress, and weakens the trees, making them more vulnerable to fungal diseases such as moniliasis or brown rot. The result: lower yields and lower-quality beans.

"If current trends continue, up to 50% of currently cultivated areas could become unsuitable for cocoa cultivation by 2050," estimates a study conducted by Wageningen University (Netherlands).

2.2 Unpredictable rainfall and destabilized harvests

Cocoa requires a delicate balance of sun and rain. But climate change is disrupting this cycle: rainy seasons are becoming shorter, followed by violent thunderstorms that cause soil erosion.

These extreme fluctuations disrupt flowering and promote the growth of pathogenic fungi. Prolonged droughts, meanwhile, limit pod growth, reducing yields per tree by 20 to 30% according to some FAO estimates.

2.3 Deforestation and loss of natural shade

The cocoa tree is a so-called “shade” species, which naturally grows under the forest canopy. However, massive deforestation over several decades to expand cultivation areas has altered this balance.

Deprived of shade, trees are now directly exposed to the sun, which exacerbates heat stress and accelerates soil drying.

It is a vicious cycle: the more deforestation progresses, the more the local climate deteriorates, and the more vulnerable the plantations become.

2.4 Soil depletion and dependence on fertilizers

In intensively cultivated areas, soils are rapidly losing nutrients. Producers, often helpless in the face of these changes, turn to chemical fertilizers to maintain their yields, which further weakens ecosystems.

This dependence leads to increased production costs, greater pollution of soils and groundwater, and, ultimately, a lasting decline in soil fertility.

3. Major economic and social consequences

Global warming does not only threaten nature: it also endangers millions of small producers who live off cocoa. In West Africa, the majority of farmers earn less than €2 per day, and their incomes depend entirely on the annual harvest.

However, faced with falling yields and irregular seasons, these families are seeing their livelihoods shrink.

Many cooperatives are already reporting abandoned plantations or shifts to other more resistant crops (such as cassava or rubber).

This structural shift could eventually cause a lasting shortage of cocoa on the global market, directly impacting chocolatiers, artisans, and consumers.

4. What impact for chocolate lovers?

The most visible consequence for consumers is, of course, the rising price of chocolate. But beyond cost, it is the availability and quality of cocoa that are at stake.

Some large industrial manufacturers have already reduced the cocoa content in certain product lines, while artisan bean-to-bar makers (who prioritize purity and traceability) must adapt without compromising their quality standards.

At Shoukâ, we have chosen a resilient and responsible approach:

• prioritizing beans from sustainable plantations, where agroforestry helps protect the soil,

• maintaining long-term relationships with our partner producers,

• processing our own beans in our Chamonix workshop, to guarantee full traceability and an authentic taste.

5. Shoukâ: an ethical and sustainable bean-to-bar chocolate

Our bean-to-bar approach consists of controlling every step, from bean to bar. This allows us to support a model that is more virtuous for the planet and for producers.

Our commitments:

• Rigorous selection of cocoa beans, according to their origin, variety, and the farming practices used.

• Artisanal processing in Chamonix: roasting, winnowing, conching, and tempering are done on site.

• Support for sustainable practices: we collaborate with farms committed to agroforestry and the reforestation of tropical areas.

• Eco-responsible packaging: use of recyclable materials and reduction of our carbon footprint at every step.

At Shoukâ, every bar tells a story: that of a pure, transparent chocolate that respects its origin.

6. The future of chocolate: what solutions for tomorrow?

6.1 Agroforestry, a model for the future

This practice consists of combining shade trees with cocoa crops. It helps regulate temperature, preserve soil moisture, and store carbon.

Pilot projects conducted in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire show that this method can increase yields by 20% while improving biodiversity.

6.2 Scientific innovation

Researchers are working on creating cocoa varieties that are more resistant to heat or certain diseases, while preserving the fine aromas sought by artisans.

These innovations, combined with better water management, could reduce the vulnerability of the sector.

6.3 A role for consumers

Consumer choices are decisive. By prioritizing chocolates from fair trade or artisan bean-to-bar production, everyone helps preserve this industry.

Consuming less, but better, is today a concrete act of support.

FAQ: Frequently asked questions about cocoa and climate change

Q1. Will climate change make chocolate disappear?

Not in the short term, but global production could fall by 20 to 30% by 2050 without adaptation. This would result in higher prices and a shortage of quality chocolates.

Q2. Which countries will be most affected?

The countries of West Africa (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria) are the most exposed.

Conversely, some regions of Latin America (Peru, Ecuador, Colombia) could benefit from more favorable conditions.

Q3. How can producers adapt?

By adopting more sustainable practices: planting shade trees, diversifying crops, controlled irrigation, selecting resistant varieties, and participating in reforestation programs.

Conclusion: protecting cocoa means protecting our pleasure

Cocoa is not like other products: it symbolizes pleasure, sharing, and craftsmanship. But this treasure of nature depends on a fragile balance, which is currently threatened.

In the face of climate change, collective action is essential. Producers, artisans, consumers: everyone has a role to play in preserving this precious resource. At Shoukâ, we believe in sustainable, transparent, and responsible chocolate. Every bar we create is a promise: that of preserving the planet while celebrating indulgence.

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